Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
