Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
